Austria T-Mobile Bundesliga 1-2/04/06

[Skorona]

Hello to all members,
I am new in this forum and would like to introduce first myself to all of you. My name is Markus, I am 23 years old and from Germany and are a beginner in sportsbetting. I tried to find as many informations as possible to get an idea of the value system with Asian Handicap odds to cover Austria Bundesliga. Please feel free to comment / critizise my picks or analysis, as I now here are some much more experienced punters than me of which I can only benefit. But now let's go on to my first post here:

Sturm Graz - Rapid Vienna
Pick: Sturm Graz +0 @ 1.82 Pointbet, 6/10
Estimations: 40-30-30

Sturm Graz lost their last away fixture to Ried 2-0 but at home it's totally different in my opinion: They managed earlier this season to hold Grazer AK 0-0 in the derby and beat Salzburg 4-0, although they seem not to be very homestrong according to statistics, I rate them as hard to beat at home. On Sturm Graz side, only Säumel is out which isn't a big blow in my opinion.
Rapid Vienna on the other is in deep crisis after losing 0-1 at home to Wacker Modling. There is much trouble in the press about Rapid, their players and especially the coach - so a lot of stress in players heads. In addition to this, Bejbl, Dober, Martin Hiden, Kienast are all out while there are doubts about Dollinger and Lawaree. The missings are important same as the doubtful players.


Superfund Pasching - SV Mattersburg
Pick: SV Mattersburg +0.75 @ 2.10 Pinnaclesports, 6/10
Estimations: 55-25-20

I agree on Pasching have showed some nice performances lately winning both games against Grazer AK, but Grazer AK is totally out of form and in deep crisis, similiar to Rapid Vienna at the moment. Therefor, I do not see Pasching as a scoring force and the chance of a scoring draw in this fixture is quite high in my opinion. On the other, Mattersburg has the whole squad available and the 2-2 at home in their last game against Wacker Tirol was a totally unfair result, as Mattersburg missed at least 3 100% chances. I al
so suspect the Superfund players to get problems with the situation they are in, already last season they were used to fail in cases like today where they were strong favorites.


Wacker Tirol - SV Josko Ried
Pick: SV Josko Ried +0.25 @ 2.10 Pointbet, 6/10
Estimations: 40-35-25

Clash between 2 in-form teams but I must back Ried at this odds. Wacker drew totally undeserved away to Mattersburg and were not able to really control the game and were lucky to take 1 point home. Their play looked kind of boring and unorganized. Ried on the other won over Grazer AK and are highly motivated in front of this clash. They have several injuries, but they do not affect the play very much as Ried will field a similiar team as the squad which won over GAK. Especially motivation should play a huge role, as this is a 6-pointer for Ried as in case of winning they could even grab an international spot.


Red Bull Salzburg - Grazer AK
Pick: Grazer AK +0.75 @ 2.24 Pinnaclesports, 6/10
Estimations: 55-25-20

Red Bull Salzburg is the only team which will compete with Austria for the title this year, but the value here is definately at the Grazer side. Salzburg is a force at home (12-0-2) but teams like Admira Wacker showed that it's possible to beat them in Salzburg. They have a lot of missings in form of Ivanschitz, Lokvenc, Knavs and Kirchler which are all regular starters while Bodnar is highly doubtful.
As already mentioned, Grazer AK is out of form but still there is of course quality in this team and I cannot understand this price for Grazer AK +0.75 as my estimation is around 2.00.

[Skorona]

18:30 R FC Superfund 2 : 0 Mattersburg
18:30 R Sturm 0 : 0 Rapid
18:30 R Wacker Tirol 0 : 1 Ried

1 won, 1 lost, 1 void, little profit of 0.6 units so far.