Austria T-Mobile Bundesliga 11/09/05

[Frey]

Austria T-Mobile Bundesliga 11/09/05 – 15 :30 CET
Austria Vienna – Red Bull Salzburg
Pick : Salzburg +0.5
Price: 2.15
Bookie: Pointbet
Stake: 6/10

Weather Estimation: cloudy, 20-22 Degrees
Pitch Information: Good
Any special notes: derby character in this game

Player Rankings:
***- Keyplayer
**- Regular
*- Unimportant player
R – Reserve player


Austria Vienna Team News:
Rushfeldt ( off, **/*** ) is out because of an injury.

Austria Vienna Analysis:
Austria Vienna lost surprisingly in their last home fixture against Superfund Pasching 0:2. During that game, Vienna seemed to be disorganized especially in their defense as the first goal was an owngoal while the second goal came after a horrible mistake in the midfield. HT result was 0:2.
In the second half, Austria Vienna tried to play more offensive but failed at the good defense of Superfund and was only able to create around 2-3 highclass chances of which none was followed by a goal. After around 20 minutes of the second half, Austria seemed to have given up and did not make many tries to score again and finally lost 0:2 which was quite fair result compared to the gameplay.
For this game, Vienna is able to field the same squad as in their previous league games except offender Rushfeldt who is not able to play because of an injury.

Austria Vienna supposed lineup:
Didulica - Troyansky/Dospel, Tokic, Antonsson, Papac - Sionko/Mila, Kiesenebner, N. Ceh, Blanchard, Mila/Lasnik - Linz



Red Bull Salzburg Team News:
Linke ( def, *** ) makes his comeback after a longterm injury which will affect the Salzburg defense in a positive way.

Red Bull Salzburg Analysis:
Salzburg won at their last home fixture against Admira Wacker 3:2 which looks like a lousy result on the paper but was a pretty strong win in my oppinion. Coach Kurt Jara rested a handful of regulars against Admira so that was not the strongest lineup of Salzburg, certainly with an eye on this important derby fixture against Austria Vienna today was a reason as well.
Salzburg did not convince in the first half as they were down 0-1 but finally managed to equalize in the 27th minute. After the break, Salzburg seemed to be more motivated and played some very nice soccer and managed to score twice in the second half . The Admira goal was shot in the extra time and quite lucky as Salzburg played with only 10 men after a slight injury of Kirchler which was not able to be replaced after the changing contingent was already fullfilled.
One positive aspect for Salzburg here is that after some serious trouble with their fans, finally the atmosphere became better again and their stadium was well filled against Admira. For this game, there are around 3.000 Salzburg fans expected to travel to Vienna so Salzburg will receive some nice backup from the fans.

Red Bull Salzburg supposed lineup:
Manninger - Winklhofer, Knavs, Linke, Pichorner - Carboni/M. Suazo, Aufhauser - Schopp, Kirchler, Jezek - Zickler


Final Analysis:
After Vienna’s poor performance against Superfund in their last fixture, I hardly see them winning easily in this derby game. Salzburg on the other performed very well against Admira and with Linke there is an important defender back which will make their defense more solid again.
According to the +0.5 odds, bookies estimation for Salzburg not to lose is around 47% and as I give Salzburg around 55% not to lose, we have a nice value bet here in my oppinion.